This is no problem if your subjective expectations are exactly in accord with the evidence. A. Taken from the DEAR ABBY column by Abigail Van Buren. Is the outcome stated precisely? As with the outcome, the concern here is also with prior epistemic probabilityin this case, the probability that you would assess to the explanation prior to your making any judgment about the observable outcome. Youll seethe audience will applaud at the end. The explanation is more probable than the leading alternatives. e. individual versus group, Sports psych in class quizzes (22, 23, 24), Elliot Aronson, Robin M. Akert, Samuel R. Sommers, Timothy D. Wilson, Chapter 17 SB: Infants, Children, and Adolesc. A) experiential method B) scientific method C) intuitive process D) strategic management process E) account planning philosophy B) scientific method Deduce what? said he, petulantly. B. A statement that enables us both to predict and to better understand the cause of that which it explains. Butterfingers, of course. Franklin D. Trumpy, Skeptical Inquirer (Concern yourself with the inference made by Dr. How often do people leave water spraying everywhere rather than simply turning it off? This is solid evidence for the existence of the so-called sophomore jinx. WebTranscribed image text: www.bbt.com Our Time.com Cesearch Foundations, Process, and Ethics Savod Which of the following is an explanatory hypothesis? When he was a young lawyer, Abe Lincoln had to defend a client against a case that seemed to be strongly supported by a list of undisputed facts. When established scientists reject offbeat theories, defenders of such views love to cite these cases. Which of the following statements best distinguishes hypotheses from theories in science? And it is highly probable that we will have any observation at all. So, an unfalsifiable explanation fails the improbable outcome test. First American psychologist. 2. General explanationan explanation that can apply to a wide range of observable outcomes. MIU had practiced TM on eight nonconsecutive days, without a miss, when the preceding days forecast predicted mild or continuing mild weather. When firefighters arrived to battle a blaze reported at a Van Nuys bar early Wednesday, they found a man pouring gasoline from a plastic jug outside the building. We reviewed their content and use your feedback to keep the quality high. Aggression facilitates performance. It will be proven when I get some sort of raise in the next few years. I never thought it would work, but I read somewhere that we should get a cat if we wanted to rid ourselves of the mice in the garage. A theory with great explanatory power makes few assumptions, has significant predictive power and helps to reduce uncertainty in a precise and accurate way. For example, our hypothesis in this case could be that the toast didn't toast because the electrical outlet is broken. Look for coincidence as an alternative explanation. (It is called double blind because neither those receiving the pills nor those administering the study knows which group is getting the real Vitamin C and which is getting the bogus Vitamin C.) By using large groups, the coincidence alternative is ruled out. People in the South tend to rate the President more favorably than do people in the North Real estate investment trusts (REITs) experienced a record level of profitability in 2004. d. You probably already suspect that its the set of all even numbers; but before I make you commit to that answer, I offer you the opportunity to test your answer by suggesting one more number that is either in or out of the set. c. an interaction of situations and personal beliefs Answer: 16: Dear Pete: Sorry, no help from this corner for a plumber who cant keep track of his pipes. That should prove to you that it is running low. Which aspect of the scientific method occurs first? Ideally, the explanation contains a cohesive and cogent understanding of the origins of the problems, the conditions that perpetuate them, the obstacles interfering with their solution, and the resources available to address them. To say that an explanation or an outcome is not falsifiable is to say that any observation at all is consistent with the explanation. New evidence shows that optimists live longer. Dear Papa Bear: Its just a wild guess, but I think somebodys been sleeping in your bed. d. a and b. e. a and c. b. in the quest of some nonaggressive goal. Slightly less oxygen means that we get tired a little sooner; slightly worn brakes stop the car a little more slowly; slightly less sunlight means the plant grows a little shorter. WebSchedule 1 - Dictionary . . The survivors were the finches with beaks closest to either of the two extremesa demonstration of how competition eliminates intermediate beaks and forces each species to specialize in seeds of one size. One habitat, selected at random, was sprayed with insecticide, and the other was used as a control. These youngsters had, in fact, been selected at random from among their classmates. First American psychologist. Young women purchase fewer meats than women who are 35 years of age or older. He goes to great lengths to take care of her. is true. Rabinoff.). But you would have done far better to propose, Seven is not in the set. If you had been right, you not only would have confirmed your preferred even-numbers answer, but also you would have ruled out the whole-numbers alternativethereby improving the logical support for your answer. . Step 1. I thought somebody must be barbecuing. It is much harder to invent an explanation that successfully predicts future observations. a. A theory predicts events in a broad, general context; a hypothesis makes a specific prediction about a specified set of circumstances. Is the if-clause offered as superior to alternative explanations of the then-clause? This is a way of emphasizing the importance of an improbable outcome. Select the correctly ordered list of psychological perspectives, with the earliest perspective listed first. But how can the mere belief that one is doomed be fatal? After searching for it high and low later, I suddenly remembered. b. If comets were common in December, then the premises of the argument would have still been true, but they would have given us no good reason to believe the conclusion. So the scientists are wrong when they reject the paranormal, ancient astronauts, and homeopathic medicine! I subconsciously wanted the test to succeed, so I tended not to count less severe colds that I otherwise would have counted. The girls explored the area on ____ bicycles. Hypotheses are guesses; theories are correct answers. D. It excludes the presumption of And, though you may not find the ifthen premise, there are two things you can always expect to find if the argument is explanatory: reference to the explanation, often with a discussion of why it is better than alternative explanations; and reference to the observable outcome, often with a discussion of how unlikely that outcome would otherwise The logic of the gods argument would benefit if its observable outcome ruled out the luck alternativeif, for example, the outcome were revised, as Bacon hints, to this: Nobody who worships the gods has drowned in a shipwreck. her own conscious experience. e. a and c, The peer conflict resolution program developed to help resolve conflicts in a nonviolent way uses ________ as mediators in resolving student conflicts. After each toss, all who tossed tailsabout half those still standinghad to sit down. The first part of the total evidence condition is that the observable outcome must have a low prior epistemic probability. So the arguments logic must be considered weak. Favor outcomes that would falsify alternative explanations. During an episode of wheezing, they found that the vocal cords, which are located in the airway leading to the lungs, formed almost a complete barricade across the passage. He had a maritime tattoo, a military carriage, regulation side-whiskers, and an air of command. As with determining the improbability of the outcome, there is no formula for determining the probability of the explanation. I recently organized a small test of this hypothesis. Treatment: in a research study, any condition applied to subjects - those in the treatment group - that is not applied to subjects in a control group. Also termed the data, the prediction, or the facts. It turns out that played forward, the word enormous occurs from time to time in these speeches; and enormous sounds like simone when it is played backwards. Los Angeles Times. Both the premise and the conclusion of an inductive generalization are concerned with the same subject matter. If punishment motivates learning better than does reward, then punishing student pilots when they perform poorly is followed by improved performance more often than rewarding them when they perform well. ________ is a perspective within psychology that emphasizes the potential for good that is innate to all humans, proposing a hierarchy of human needs in motivating behavior. So the logic of the burglar argument is shown to be weak. Then, recalling our discussion of evaluating the truth of bothand sentences in Chapter 10, the prior probability that it was both of them can be roughly understood as .10 times .10, or .01. We reviewed their content and use your feedback to keep the quality high. In practice, it is usually easy to tell the difference between an explanatory argument and a deductive argument. He argued that, by super-cooling the stomach, acid production was reduced and the ulcer relieved. Lack suggested that a finch species alone on an island evolved an intermediate beak for eating seeds of various sizes. Explanationa statement that enables us both to predict and to better understand the cause of that which it explains. The explanation must, at a minimum, be falsifiable. An experimental design in which neither the subjects nor the experimenters know what treatment (if any) individual subjects are receiving. Shes still really a kittenin fact, shes so small I had to seal up the holes in the garage wall to be sure she didnt slip out and get lostbut she really did the job. Resist the temptation, especially when you can see that coincidence has not been ruled out as an alternative explanation. A hypothesis is a tentative explanation . Concrete, according to the campus architect, was poured whenever the schedule required and the necessary materials were available. An hours sleuthing eliminated the plants inventory, machinery, welding operations, painting procedures and conveyor system as possible sources of the dent. Confirmation biasour natural tendency to look for outcomes that support our preferred explanation rather than those that might also falsify the alternatives. If so, then it probably has a low prior probability. Sample answer. Scientists generally base scientific hypotheses on previous observations that cannot satisfactorily be explained with the available scientific theories. Explanation: Astrology is reliable. A proposed explanation for observed phenomena. c. when participants perceive they are the recipients of poor officiating Exploratory research is defined as a research used to investigate a problem which is not clearly defined. Favoring outcomes that rule out alternative explanations is an especially powerful strategy. You should be a bit more suspicious of explanatory arguments in which the observable outcome preceded the explanationbut for psychological, not logical, reasons. Here is an example from Arthur Conan Doyles A Study in Scarlet; Dr. Watson is querying Sherlock Holmes about what he deducedusing the term more broadly than we are using it in this text. Null hypothesis : this is known as the default hypothesis.It states that The explanation must be sufficiently probable. Select the correctly ordered list of psychological theorists, with the earliest theorist listed first. Sample exercise. Normally scientists can trace meteorites back to comets and asteroids, debris left over from the formation of the solar system 4.6 billion years ago. Which of the following exemplifies the unconditional positive regard component of client-centered therapy? 1. So far as anyone at the end of the 17th century had been able to tell, the motion of comets was utterly irregular. Because the explanation does no work in making the outcome probable, it should get none of the credit when the outcome is observed. Note: See Section 6. A biologist was concerned about the environmental effects of an insecticide being used in his area to kill mosquitos that carried equine encephalitis. Observable outcome: An image looking like the outline of the Virgin Mary was seen on the wall of a house. In Arnhem Land, it seems, sorcery kills not by suggestion or paralyzing fear, but by dehydration. d. a and b. e. a and c. b. in the quest of some nonaggressive goal. c. Small-scale, on-the-field aggressive acts serve as triggers for crowd aggression. If the man were a Marine sergeant, then he would have a maritime tattoo, a military carriage, regulation side-whiskers, and an air of command. That explanation has a nearly nil prior probability, since it does not make any sense; there is no uncontroversial example of this sort of thing actually happening, and we havent the slightest notion of the causal mechanisms that would be involved. Do not worry for now whether the observable outcome e. Follow up. d. all of the above Even across the street I could see a great blue anchor tattooed on the back of the fellows hand. No. Repression is the mechanism by which we push out of awareness and into our unconscious memories of deeply traumatic childhood experiences. Partly because this revised outcome would be false, it has not been offered; so the argument is handicapped by an outcome that leaves the luck alternative still standing. Organisms can grow and develop, and they carry information relating to these and other processes that they can pass on to offspring. This requires imagination in coming up with alternative explanations for the sake of comparison. Psychoanalytic theory focuses on ________ and early childhood experiences. Halleys job would have been much easier if, instead of predicting a comet precisely in December 1758, he had made the following vague prediction: At least one comet will appear somewhere in the sky at some time in the future. In the case study of Billy the hockey goalie, what did he learn? Punishment motivates learning better than does reward.. For general explanations, a good way to check for simplicity is to ask. Another contemporary of his, French mathematician and philosopher Blaise Pascal, suspected that Torricelli was right but that a greater altitude was required to prove it. Hierarchical organization. H. Huxley, letter, September 23, 1860. d. as an inverted-U Write an expression for the general or nth term, an,a_{n},an, for the geometric sequence. Empirical knowledge is knowledge that is based on experience and observation. The first premise states that the theory, or the explanation, really does enable you to predict the facts, or the observable outcome. Real estate investment trusts (REITs) experienced a record level of profitability in 2004 Soles Suppose I let you inspect my hat and then I pull a rabbit out of it, arguing that I have magical powers. Prepare a cost of production report, using the average cost method. Appetite fails, and the relatives keep water cans beyond reach, despite temperatures well above 100 degrees in the shade. It includes the presumption of causation. b. Pa! exclaimed the youngster, they are getting ready to pee on the hay! Well, son, replied the father, youve got the facts all right, but have reached the wrong conclusion. Lincolns client, we are told, was acquitted. General explanationsNewtonian celestial mechanics, for exampleare intended to apply broadly; Newtons theories explain the motion of all heavenly bodies at all times. WebQuestion: Which of the following is an explanatory hypothesis? e. They were born with an aggressive urge, e. They were born with an aggressive urge, Research on game reasoning (also called bracketed morality) has shown that A later investigation showed that there was indeed a correlation between TM and warmer weather, but an even stronger correlation between TM and the preceding afternoons forecast of warmer weather for the next day. The independent variable is manipulated to cause-effect on the dependent variable and the dependent variable is measured to examine the effect Webe. UNIVERSAL PRESS SYNDICATE. (If necessary, review Section 4.4.4.4.4.4.) Be careful not to confuse explanatory arguments with deductive arguments that commit the fallacy of affirming the consequent. have been. You'll get a detailed solution from a subject matter expert that helps you learn core concepts. A measurable entity that is created by the process being observed and whose value cannot be controlled; generally represented on the y- axis in a graph and expected to change in response to a change in the independent variable. A. A hypothesis attempts to explain natural phenomenon and can be tested through experimentation; a theory attempts to summarize a large expanse of natural phenomenon and has already been tested thoroughly without contradictory results. There are a few money managers who succeed on the basis of skillmultibillionaire Warren Buffet is the most famous example. If you were to design an experiment to test whether a particular pathogen caused a disease, which of the following choices would be the first step and which the last step you would make if you followed the scientific method precisely? Then NASAs Donald Bogard compared the meteorites fingerprint of noble gases to those found on Mars by the Viking landerand discovered that they matched closely. Recall, from Chapter 13, that larger margins of error make it much more probable that the conclusion of an inductive generalization is true; there is a much greater chance that between 50 percent and 60 percent of the voters favor Jones than there is that exactly 55 percent of them do. Explanatory arguments require humble attention to the facts of our experience, as Huxley notes above. e. none of the above, b. behavior directed toward the goal of harming a person who is motivated to avoid such treatment, Smith's research concerning violence in hockey showed that But Grayson believes its unlikely such factors fully explain the statistics. This is another way of saying that, prior to making any judgment about whether the explanation is true or the outcome has been observed, there would be no good reason to expect the outcome. D. It excludes the presumption of causation. It describes why the individual is having problems. We can also ask the same of singular explanations, although one way of asking it of singular explanations is to ask whether this sort of thing is known to have happened before and whether it occurs more frequently than the alternative explanations. Conduct the experiment over and over again. In the late 1950s, a doctor reported in the Journal of the American Medical Association that stomach ulcers could be effectively treated by having a patient swallow a balloon connected to some tubes that circulated a refrigerated fluid. But the premises would provide virtually no support for the Newtonian conclusioncomets do appear from time to time, so this particular outcome would have been virtually certain anyway. Which of the following has scientific investigation shown to be LEAST reliable in criminal prosecutions? Psychology is a social science discipline. Sales of vegetarian foods vary by season. Two kinds of theories have been proposed. As improbable as the Holocaust explanation ismercifully, such evils happen so seldom that its prior probability is quite lowthe hoax explanation is vanishingly probable. Workinprocess,May1,1,150pounds,40%completedCoffeebeansaddedduringMay,10,900poundsConversioncostsduringMayWorkinprocess,May31,800pounds,80%completedGoodsfinishedduringMay,11,250pounds$1,70028,60012,504. Prior probability: higher than moon and Venus alternatives, but still too low to consider the logic of the argument any better than undecidable, since there are problems with the conceptual frameworkscientists cannot understand how a piece of the planet could have been ejected with enough speed without vaporizing.. An experiment that makes it possible to determine decisively between alternative hypotheses. Which of the following is not involved in critical thinking? 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That is based on experience and observation take care of her cost of production report, using average. But by dehydration if any ) individual subjects are receiving that coincidence has been... The case study of Billy the hockey goalie, what did he learn first! Outcome e. Follow up like the outline of the following is an especially powerful strategy www.bbt.com our Cesearch! Sort of raise in the shade memories of deeply traumatic childhood experiences above.